The Mezzala In Midfield

Originally Published 20th November 2020.

This season so far, ‘out and out’ English strikers have collectively overshadowed the rest of the world’s pool of strikers in the Premier League by some distance with the likes of Harry Kane, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Ollie Watkins and Patrick Bamford all terrifying defences recently. This pattern has resurfaced in the last 18 months or so due to an amalgamation of factors despite being largely absent over the last vicennium.Whilst wide midfielders and wingers throughout the Premier League are still dominated by overseas professionals, the classical ‘Number 9’ is becoming increasingly dependent on home-grown talent across a magnitude of Premier League teams once again.

From the Premier League’s inaugural season in 1992-93 to the late 1990’s, English strikers dominated the Golden Boot charts revealing a lack of foreign talent at the time. Only two out of the top 13 goal scorers in the 1992-93 season were non-Englishman as Frenchman Eric Cantona and Welshman Mark Hughes proved anomalies. Hardly a continental array of personnel one would suggest. This pattern continued until the late 1990’s with the likes of Ian Wright, Alan Shearer, Teddy Sheringham, Les Ferdinand, Michael Owen and Andy Cole perennially challenging for the illustrious Golden Boot crown.

However, particularly just before and then after the turn of the millennium; the combination of the increasing wealth of Premier League tycoons alongside the arrival of foreign coaching staff and the ever-growing globalisation of the game collectively led to the rapid increase of overseas attacking imports . The additions of Thierry Henry, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Mark Viduka, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer laid the foundations for strikers looking to test themselves against the typical no-nonsense battle-hardened English defences. Throughout the rest of the 2000’s and 2010’s, foreign strikers began to outclass their Anglo counterparts in an array of technical ability, speed and strength. The first eight winners (including ties) of the Premier League Golden Boot were all Englishmen, however since 1997-1998, only 5 of the following 27 winners have been English revealing the extent to which the Premier League has truly gone global. Whilst top foreign strikers are still in abundance within the Premier League, the goal scoring trends of the 2020-2021 season so far have pointed towards a higher influence from English talents.

The Numbers

While the 2020-2021 season may have been played all behind closed doors thus far, the lack of fans urging players on has done nothing to dampen the entertainment on the pitch. If anything, the absence of supposed ‘pressure’ piled on players by fans has led to a more free-flowing season than witnessed ever before.

Through the first 78 games (8 Game Weeks-only 8 games were played in Game Week 1) of this season’s Premier League, an absurd 242 goals have been scored at a rate of 3.10 goals per game. Notably, Game Week 2 between 19th-21st September yielded the Premier League record for most goals in a single round of fixture as 44 goals were scored across the 10 fixtures. Arguably it has been a goal-frenzy so far with unusual score lines becoming a common occurrence such as Aston Villa’s 7-2 dismantling against Liverpool and a further seven goals being scored in seven different fixtures. Whilst the scoring rate has quickly decreased, 3.79 goals per game were scored though the first 4 Game Weeks compared to 3.10 after 8 Game Weeks the rate is still situated at an all-time high which is shown by Graph 1 below.

Graph 1-Illustration of Goals Per Game Variances Between 1992/93 to 2020-21

Whereas the total goals scored per game has increased significantly from last season (3.10 GPG compared to the 2.72 GPG) the proportion of goals scored by English players compared to the Rest of the World has dramatically changed in the 2020-2021 season. As shown by Table 1 below, the percentage of goals scored by English players compared to the previous season has increased by a staggering 13.5%, identifying English players are having more of an impact on goals scored. The increasing impact made by English strikers is arguably magnified considering attackers, regardless of origin, historically score more goals than any other position, therefore affirming the view that there is a resurgence of English strikers in the Premier League.

Table 1-Goals Scored by English Player’s Proportion

Season Through 78 Games	Total Goals (Excluding Own Goals)	% of Goals Scored By English Players
2019-2020	213	30.5%
2020-2021	234	44.0%

A clear and simple visualisation of English scoring dominance this season is the goal-scoring charts through the 8 Game Weeks. 6 out of the top 8 goal-scorers this season are English and even the two foreign players in that top 8, Heung-Min Son and Mo Salah, are not classified as strikers.

Player	Position	Nationality	Goals Scored
Mo Salah	Right-Winger	Egyptian	8
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	Striker	English	8
Heung-Min Son	Left-Winger	South-Korean	8
Jamie Vardy	Striker	English	8
Harry Kane	Striker	English	7
Patrick Bamford	Striker	English	7
Ollie Watkins	Strikers	English	6
Callum Wilson	Striker	English	6

Outside of the table, the likes of Danny Ings (5 goals), Michail Antonio and Che Adams (3 goals each) are further examples of English strikers scoring at a consistent rate this season. Furthermore, in all competitions Tammy Abraham has a goal contribution every 72.6 minutes in 20-21 showing he is still highly effective in rotation despite the existence of Timo Werner. In addition, Eddie Nketiah of Arsenal recently became England U21’s top goal scorer in the team history’s. Both Abraham and Nketiah are contributing to the ever growing English striking cohort.

English Striking Individual Improvements

The quantity of high-level coaching within the league and coaching improvements within England’s Youth Teams set up’s has arguably contributed to the rise of English proficiency in front of goal. Many influential contemporary managers currently occupy roles within the league such as inseparable duo Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp, Champions League winning managers Jose Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti, and the shining exemplar Marcelo Bielsa, all of whom have no doubt enhanced the skillset of players at their respective clubs.

Whilst Harry Kane has started the Premier League on phenomenal form shown by him leading all Top 5 League players in total goals and assists with 15 in only 8 games, his form is very much unsustainable. 8 assists in 8 games is remarkable but almost a certainty to not continue at this current rate as it would result in 38 by the end of the season. Considering last season Kevin De Bruyne equalled Thierry Henry’s Premier League Record of 20 assists which itself was no mean feat, Kane’s strong start is untenable. His Expected Assist’s total of 2.39 points towards the high-quality finishing of his teammates, especially his almost telepathic connection with Heung-Min Son, resulting in the relative over-performance in this bracket from Kane. Mourinho has afforded Kane the ability to drop deeper more often than previous seasons in order to free up larger spaces along the defensive line for the nimbler Son to run into which has evidently been proved as effective. This is a tactic potentially Gareth Southgate could utilise at an international level for England with the likes of Jadon Sancho and Raheem Sterling able to venture into territory Son typically takes advantage of so well.

Under the influence of Carlo Ancelotti, Dominic Calvert-Lewin in particular has dramatically improved as a striker over the last 18 months with his finishing now being described as similar to Italian legend Filippo Inzaghi by his own boss. 16 goals in 28 league games highlights Calvert-Lewin’s growing ability under the tutelage of the Italian which is a stark comparison to the 16 goals in 94 league games he endured before Ancelotti took over the Toffee’s. Aerially Calvert-Lewin has dramatically improved, especially with his headers towards goal almost demonstrating a Cristiano Ronaldo-esque leap at times which is shown by this strike against Brighton.

Despite, not exhibiting a large increase statistically in aerial duels, with a 43.4% success rate in 2020-2021 compared to 38.0% in 2018-2019, it is clear the Everton forward is more comfortable with the physicality demanded of the Premier League as well as timing his leaps better which is signified by half of his 8 league goals being headers this season.

Another beneficiary of a top level coach is undoubtedly Patrick Bamford under the stewardship of Marcelo ‘El Loco’ Bielsa. A hard-working but frankly mediocre finisher in front of goal in the past has gone from strength to strength within the last two seasons despite creating frictions between the Elland Road faithful at times. When breaking through at Nottingham Forest and subsequently Chelsea’s youth teams it was clear Bamford had the talent which was further backed up with 22 league goals in the 2013-2014 season across loan spells at MK Dons and Derby County whilst only 20 years old. However, a lack of consistent game time, poorly chosen loan moves and little faith from various managers at multiple clubs ensured the £7 million plus move to Leeds in July 2018 raised eyebrows after a reasonable period at Middlesbrough. Consistent game-time and Bielsa’s extreme demands of players have led to the Argentine viewing Bamford as critical to Leeds’ highly intensive man to man pressing systems which in turn has elevated Bamford’s skillset significantly. Bamford’s constant pressing from the front is integral to Leeds’ total game plan and the success to which he starts the engage of the opposition is shown by Leeds United ranking first in the Premier League in terms of Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action (an advanced metric to quantify aggressiveness of a team’s pressing system) at 9.34 PPDA. In context Liverpool’s acclaimed Gengenpress style averages 10.62 PPDA this season revealing Leeds’ and subsequently Bamford’s pressing prosperity. While he has never been a tremendous ‘goal getter’ statistically, Bamford is making more out of the chances he gets than in the past and is currently operating above his Expected Goals tally. This season he lies at 6.26 XG compared to his 7 goals and a very-well taken goal which was cruelly chalked off by VAR against Crystal Palace would only add to this differential. Compare that to Bamford’s 2019-2020 Championship season in which he performed well under his XG of 24.28, netting 16 vital goals that led to Leeds’ promotion. You would think Bamford’s immense pressing ability and improving finishing is likely to push him towards the national duty discussion. Take Dominic Calvert-Lewin as an example of Southgate’s previous propensity of selecting well performing Premier League strikers.

The ever-green Jamie Vardy continues to defy the age barrier for a striker who’s game is predicated on acceleration and constant energy. Reducing the burden of the intensive schedule within modern football by retiring from international duty at only 31 years old has reaped its benefits with 49 goals in 76 league games since calling it quits. Unless an injury crisis occurs, Vardy currently does not want to be considered for international duty which is arguably a thorn in Southgate’s plans as Vardy offers an alternative style of play compared to the likes of Kane, Calvert-Lewin and Abraham through his directness and tenacity.

Under Ralph Hasenhuttl’s 4-2-2-2 high pressing system, Danny Ings has almost had a career resurrection in a pressing system similar to that of former club Liverpool, in which he was expected to shine. However, serious injuries and the development of the likes of Roberto Firmino curtailed his time at Anfield. Despite that setback, he has flourished over the 18 months or so with an England recall the pinnacle of his renaissance on the south coast. Likewise to Vardy, Ings could be described as a relentless and dogged attacker which is personified by him leading Southampton’s much acclaimed press which currently ranks second based on PPDAA at 9.86, only behind Leeds’ aforementioned 9.34 PPDA. However, rather than Vardy who conjures a lot of his goals from lethal counter-attacks and well-taken penalties, Ings is a quintessential poacher who preys on opposition mistakes such as this one from Kai Havertz.

Nonetheless, it would be rather dismissive of Ings’ talent to not mention how he is also very capable of scoring classy goals from outside the box such as this strike against Aston Villa revealing he isn’t simply a one-dimensional hassling striker.

Alongside fellow Englishmen Che Adams, Ings is one half of a dynamic duo who have materialised extraordinarily on the pitch in 2020 in a somewhat throwback formation of having two up top in a league typically dominated by a lone striker. With this in mind, Southgate could also potentially partner Kane with Ings when wide players find themselves stifled and the need for direct play to two central forwards is required.

Diminishing Overseas Striking Returns

Despite the increasing depth of quality England strikers performing well in the Premier League, the diminishing proportion of overseas goal-scoring returns can also arguably be due to injuries plaguing overseas strikers. Manchester City striking tandem Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus have only featured in a combined 291 league minutes out a possible 1,260 minutes due to respective injuries highlighting the present issue. Another example of an injury to a foreign striker is Aston Villa’s Brazilian Wesley who severed his cruciate knee ligament back in January and still has not returned to action. This was one of the reasons behind Villa recruiting Ollie Watkins who has been in sensational form with 6 goals in 7 league games.

Furthermore, Anthony Martial’s three match suspension after an early sending off against Tottenham Hotspur has reduced his potential minutes, Mikel Arteta’s persistence with playing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang as a left-winger, Roberto Firmino’s continued low goal-scoring output and even Rodrigo’s lack of starting minutes as a striker at Leeds United are all evidence to typical ‘star-strikers’ not featuring prominently and getting into typical striking positions to score goals.

Arguable underperformance based on Expected Goals is affecting foreign strikers this season too as well as the disciplinary, injury and positional issues previously alluded to. The likes of Aleksandar Mitrovic and Neal Maupay have suffered from poor finishing according to XG parameters.

However, despite the factors listed above, overseas goal contributions can find solace in the high quantity of foreign wingers dominating Premier League. Liverpool duo Sadio Mane and Mo Salah have a combined 13 goals and assists through 8 games, Heung-Min Son’s contribution has already been outlined, Hakim Ziyech’s Chelsea career has started brightly as well as Ferran Torres’ incredible Champions League and national team form at Spain is likely to start translating into success in the league. Furthermore, there is a plethora of foreign wingers not mentioned above such as Riyad Mahrez, Christian Pulisic, Adama Traore, Daniel Podence, Steven Bergwijn, Wilfried Zaha and Allan Saint-Maximin who undoubtedly have the skillsets to succeed in the Premier League, some of which have already done so to a high standard. There are also still out and out overseas strikers performing well such as Raul Jimenez and Timo Werner.

Whilst this season’s goal scoring trends may not continue at the same rate, particularly English’ improvements comparative to other nations, it is conclusive there is a wealth of riches within the striking department in the Premier League which is being led by domestic players. Although, Gareth Southgate is almost certainly going to start national team captain Harry Kane at the European Championships next summer, there is hot competition for the places in the pecking order behind Kane. His tendency to drop deep could even open up a position to start ahead of the captain in the same lineup. Whoever Southgate selects in his final 23-man squad, there is certainly a raft of competition in the striking department to choose from which will create hectic debates from now till June.

Thank you for reading,

George

All Statistics courtesy of WyScout.com unless stated. Statistics up to 19.11.2020.